Who will win the League Two promotion race?
The League Two promotion race looks mouth-watering with eight teams jostling for three automatic promotion spots to League One.
Leyton Orient can secure their place in the third tier with a win over Gillingham on Tuesday night.
The O’s top the table with 84 points, 10 points clear of second place Northampton Town with five games remaining.
It’s the chasing pack many will be keeping an eye on with just three points separating Northampton in second and Bradford City in sixth.
Mansfield Town and Salford City sit seventh and eighth, five points behind Bradford on 66 points.
Orient, Stevenage, Bradford and Mansfield all have a game in hand on their promotion rivals Northampton, Stockport County and Carlisle United who have each played 42 games.
Leyton Orient are on course to win the division, averaging 2.04 points per game. If Richie Wellens’ side keep up that average, they’ll win the league with 94 points, the highest points tally since Northampton were crowned champions with 99 points in 2016.
Over the last 10 seasons, an average of 72 points has been enough to secure promotion out of League Two.
Bury, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster Rovers set the joint highest points tally for third in League Two during the same period with each finishing on 85 points.
The lowest number of points required to secure third, aside from the 2019/20 season which was curtailed early, was in 2013 when Port Vale secured promotion with 78 points.
Points needed to gain automatic promotion from League Two since 2012/13
Given the last 10 seasons, it is difficult to make a strong case for Salford’s automatic promotion spot with the Ammies averaging 1.57 points per game giving them 72 expected points by the end of the campaign. Mansfield will also struggle to make the top three with a projected finish of 74 points.
Stockport and Carlisle are averaging 1.69 points per game meaning they would both finish in the play-offs on 78 points.
Bradford would just miss out on the top three with an expected finish of 80 points.
Stevenage would leapfrog Northampton into second with Steve Evans’ side finishing on 82 points ahead of the Cobblers in third on 81.
The final League Two table based on points per game
Despite these calculations, the fixture list will have a huge impact on who earns themselves a place in the top three.
In the current top three, Northampton take on Bradford in their penultimate game of the season and Stevenage travel to Mansfield on April 22.
Carlisle still have to play Stockport and Salford as well as a derby against Barrow. Bradford and Mansfield both have runaway leaders Leyton Orient to play as well.
Given the fixture list and the nature of how last season’s promotion race ended, absolutely anything could happen in the closing weeks of the League Two season.
